The College Football Home-field advantage is real but can vary by wide margins. Unlike other sports, the college football warlike battlefield often gives big home-field advantages. 

Home-Field Advantage vs the Tradition of Winning

This holds true even more so with programs with lots of wins. Look at Alabama who plays tough at home even during a down year. Longer winning streaks create fanbase expectations for visiting opponent’s losses. At times the home-field advantages get overstated. Upsets occur when big programs field mediocre teams. They lean on their tradition and not their effort. The mark of a good team is being able to defend the home-field advantage and crush their opponents.

Laying Siege to the Castle 

College Football is the most war-like of all the sports. The analogy I like to use is laying siege to a castle. If you have ever been to the Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio, it has this feeling. The edifice of the structure is intimidating. The uniqueness of the field screams tradition with the flagpole on the North side. Add the raucous crowd into that mix. It feels like you are trying to cross a moat and scale the 60-foot walls of a castle to claim victory. Hence it feels natural for opponents to run their flag up when big victories happen. Most armies in medieval Europe would lay siege to a castle with one expectation. They hoped that the Lord and his vassals would give up as supplies ran low.  

It is About Time

Unlike medieval armies and supplies, college football plays against the clock. A road team must establish themselves right off the bat to grab the victory. The longer the home team hangs on, the easier it becomes for them to take the lead. The atmosphere is already on their side waiting to explode on a good play. In essence, the home team can be a little more patient.

Home-Field Advantage vs Beating the Book

For the casual bettor, home-field advantage is often based on public perception. This is where a big arbitrage opportunity lies. Most people give the University of Texas the home-field advantage no matter who they play. Pay attention to specific teams’ year-in and year-out makeup and performance. This is where one has the best chance of beating the book. For example, let’s say you think playing at home gives Texas an extra 5 points in the game. Based on history you would be right, but what about when that year’s team may not be quite up to the standard?

7-Point Underdog 

What you don’t realize is polls play into the home-field advantage. Look at college blue-blood teams with a tradition like Texas or Michigan. They will always get the benefit of the doubt with home-field advantage. How can you put that to your advantage? Know that the home team may be over-ranked. This opens up good opportunities. Look for a road team that can be on par with the home team but gets counted as a 7-point underdog.  

See How it Plays Out

This particular example played out this season when TCU traveled to Austin in Week 11 as a 7-point underdog. Texas came off a big win against K-State on the road. TCU was undefeated. It appeared the spread was inflated due to the home-field advantage.

Early in the season, Texas played well at home as an underdog. As a favorite, they had not been up to par in previous performances under Coach Sark. One example was the Iowa State close win early in the season at home. This is where the experienced bettor needs to look. Consider the team that season. Compare that to historical performances when playing at home. Good teams will take advantage of the home field and can bury opponents. Home teams can take risks that road teams cannot and still bounce back from a mistake.

Home-Field Advantage vs Blue Blood Teams

Look at particular labeled blue blood teams. This includes Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, LSU. They receive bigger home-field advantages based on long-standing history and tradition. Most of the time the home field is accurate for these teams. Every now and then a season happens where they are over-rated. The home field exacerbates this over-rating. 

What to Look At

It is best to look at what a coach’s track record is at home. That history will tell you how their teams perform. When evaluating this be sure to look at how they did as a favorite or as an underdog. It’s also key to know who they are facing and how well they game plan.

Working the Advantage

We put in the work for you so that you don’t have to spend hours fumbling through lots of data. Our formulas take all this data into account when making our pick. It is not swayed by public opinion, which is what you want in a handicapping service. For example, we had many lines this year that were way different than the public.

Here are a few examples:

• Week 13 Texas A&M vs LSU Line: LSU -10 UF Line: LSU -2 Score: A&M won by 15
• Week 13 Missouri vs Arkansas Line: Arkansas -4 UF Line: Mizzou -1 Score: Mizzou won by 2
• Week 11 Texas vs TCU Line: Texas -7 UF Line: TCU -2 Score: TCU won by 7
• Week 10 Oklahoma vs Baylor Line: Oklahoma -3.5 UF Line: Baylor -3 Score: Baylor won by 3
• Week 10 Arkansas vs Liberty Line: Arkansas -13.5 UF Line: Liberty -1 Score: Liberty won by 2
• Week 6 Florida vs Missouri Line: Florida -11 UF Line: Florida -8 Score: Florida won by 7
• Week 2 Florida vs Kentucky Line: Florida – 4.5 UF line: Kentucky -8 Score: Kentucky won by 10
• Week 1 Ohio St. vs Notre Dame Line: OSU – 14.5 UF line: OSU – 5 Score: OSU won by 11